The Santa Barbara Groups Real Estate Blog

Take a look at our home page for new, updated local market reports for the Santa Barbara area real estate market. Also, check out our update bank owned list to track up coming bank owned listings.

Santa Barbara Real Estate through the end of January 2010 for Montecito, Hope Ranch, Santa Barbara, Goleta, Carpinteria and Summerland

Starting 2010 for the Home Estate/PUD market in Santa Barbara Real Estate, Montecito Real Estate, Hope Ranch Real Estate, Carpinteria Real Estate/Summerland Real Estate and Goleta Real Estate January ended with about 60 sales. This is a drop from 95 in December which is to be expected but substantially ahead of the 44 that closed in January ’09. The decline in the number of sales was most evident in the $1 to $2 million category which went from 27 in December to less than 8 in January. But the below $1 million price range also declined from over 50 sales in December to 44 in January and the $2 million and up category went from 11 sales in December to 7 in January with 2 of those sales over $5 million compared to 6 in December.

Accompanying the decline in the numbers of sales is a drop in the median sales price which for the month of January ’10 went down to about $750,000. This drop to the $750,000 level has occurred every other month for the past 6 months falling from about $850,000 in December ’09.

The number that really jumps out at me however is the Sales Price to Original List Price ratio which dipped down to just about 75% for January. That means if a property was listed for $1 million the average sales price was about $750,000. Certainly a lot of the sales in January were the ones left over from the end of ’09 with a significant number of foreclosures and short sales in the mix but a 75% Sales Price to Original List Price ratio is as low as I have ever seen it and even the Sales Price to List Price ratio which normally hovers around the mid 90th percentile is below 85%.

There were however about 56 escrows opened for the month with the median list price for those properties around $825,000 so we’ll have to see if the Median Sales price for February bounces back up to the mid $800,000 mark as it has done every other month for the last six months.

Looking at the districts, Carpinteria/Summerland has 8 sales already compared to 1 last January and the median sales price has gone from $500,000 in ’09 to $675,000 this year. In Montecito there have been 7 sales so far this year with a median sales price of $3.3 million compared to ’09 when there were 6 sales but the median sales price was about $1.7 million. I think that $3.3 million median sales price is an anomaly however because the 8 homes that went into escrow in January had a median list price of about $1.6 million which means the median sales price should continue to trend downward.

Sales on the East Side have jumped up from 10 in ’09 to 20 in ’10 but the median sales price has dipped from $970,000 last year to $839,000 this year. The West Side on the other hand has fewer sales with 8 this year compared to 10 in ’09 and the median sales price has also dropped from $886,000 last year to $727,500 this year.

Hope Ranch has 2 sales so far this year with a median sales price of about $3.6 million while in ’09 there was just 1 sale for $2.175 million. But, just as with Montecito the price trend is downward with the 1 escrow that opened in January displaying a list price of about $1.7 million compared to ’09 when there were 2 escrows opened with a median list price of about $2.5 million.

Goleta South has 8 sales so far this year compared to 6 last year but the median sales price has dropped substantially from about $790,000 last year to approximately $550,000 this year. And finally Goleta North has 9 sales this year compared to 11 last year with the median sales price falling from $700,000 in ’09 to $674,000 in ‘10

There is still a lot of activity in the marketplace but until the foreclosures and short sales have left the inventory this descending price trend should continue and unfortunately it looks like those distressed properties will continue to appear.

For the condo market, ’09 started with about 12 sales but in 2010 the number is over 20. But, last year those 12 sales had a median sales price of about $480,000 and this year the median sales price is closer to $375,000. Just like with the Home Estate/PUD market there are a substantial number of short sales and foreclosures that are part of that mix which is driving the price down but even so that’s still the lowest 1 month median sales price in years.

It looks like the median sales price should come back up however because in January there were 27 escrows opened with a median list price of $429,000. The Sales Price to Original List Price ratio is also a lot stronger compared to the Home Estate number of 75% with condos currently hovering around the 92nd percentile.

Condo prices have been fairly stable since quarter 2 of ’09 going anywhere from about a $450,000 median sales price to a $500,000+ median sales price each month with a slight upward pressure until this January. At this point I tend to think the big drop in median sales price this January is an anomaly rather than a trend.

What is a trend however, is the decline in the upper end of the condo market. Of the 21 sales in January, 19 were from $510,000 down with the least expensive condo selling for $215,000. Above $510,000 there were only 2 sales, 1 for $815,000 on the East Side of Santa Barbara and 1 for $1,050,000 in Montecito. Of the 319 condo sales in ’09 less than 20 of them were for $1 million or over with most of the higher priced properties selling either in downtown Santa Barbara or Carpinteria not Montecito.

Looking at the districts, Carpinteria/Summerland had 5 sales in January ’10 compared to 3 in ’09 with the median sales price falling slightly from $340,000 last year to $330,000 this year. In Montecito there was the 1 sale in January that I mentioned for $1,050,000 compared to none in ’09.

On the East Side of Santa Barbara January had 7 sales this year compared to 3 in ’09 but the median sales price fell from $850,000 last year to just $310,000 this year. On the West Side of town there were 4 sales in ’09 compared to 2 in ’10 with the median sales price dropping from $496,000 last year to $443,000 this year.

For Goleta South there were 3 sales in January ’10 compared to 2 in ’09 but the median sales price fell from $667,250 last year to $465,000 this year. And for Goleta North there were 3 sales this year with a median sales price of $459,000 compared to last year when there were none.

The condo market for the greater Santa Barbara area looks like it’s going to continue with between 25 and 30 sales a month and for the foreseeable future the median sales price should be about $450,000 with some slight upward pressure. The inventory after falling to an all time low of only 111 available units from Carpinteria to Goleta in December is starting to come back but this lack of inventory is the one element that would keep this portion of the market from moving forward.

For both Home Estate/PUDs and Condos the median sales price in January 2010 took a beating primarily because of the significant number of foreclosures and short sales that were a substantial part of the sales figures. There are definitely more properties in both categories coming on the market but whether it’s a flood or a trickle will determine whether prices remain where they are currently or move in one direction or the other.

The Fed is center stage this morning, and will continue to be for the next few days. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is expected to be confirmed to a second term later this week. In addition, the Fed's comments for the Fed Funds Rate and their Mortgage Backed Security purchase program could have a big impact on the markets on Wednesday.

In today's news, Existing Home Sales for December were weak, likely due to individuals who would have normally purchased in December moving their transactions into October to ensure they'd benefit from the tax credit. Rates continue at low levels all eyes on the fed.

It seems that everyday when I read the paper, I am bombarded with conflicting news on the real estate market. One day sales are up...the next they are down. One day rates are up...the next they are down. It is confusing to say the least, but as an agent on the front lines I have my own opinion.

Our market below $800K is on fire. Homes in this range sell immediately unless they have something wrong with them. Inventory in this price range in low. In some neighborhood there is nothing for sale.

$800K - $1.5MM is slow and there is a lot to choose from.

As we creep into the upper mid range, $1.5MM - $4MM we are starting to see quite a few sales fueled by price drops. Good properties are selling.

Most interesting is the upper upper end which has dropped by about 50% and is now moving I notice four closings at $12MM and up. When the big boys feel good about buying it reverberates throughout the market and confidence builds...we will see.