Santa Barbara After The Mudslide - Early Thoughts Santa Barbara Group

We’ve been getting a lot of real estate questions about what’s going to happen in Santa Barbara after the Mudslide. We have some thoughts on the subject, yet real data will take a few weeks or months to give more solid conclusions. That said, we’ll look into our crystal ball and offer up some reasonable conclusions.

Santa Barbara After The Mudslide — A look at homes affected

To date, approximately 115 Montecito homes were completely destroyed and several hundred damaged by the mudslide. This represents, according to DataUSA, over 10% of the households in Montecito. The map below graphically shows the homes that have been inspected thus far.

Santa Barbara After The Mudslide — What’s Going To Happen In Montecito?

The 64 dollar question is where are people going to buy their next home in the Santa Barbara area? We can only speculate based on what we are seeing, hearing and likely human behavior.

Montecito itself will most definitely have a hard year and likely see depressed values/interest for quite a while. It is hard to say how long as we are still processing the experience and there is a lot of fear and unknowing. It may take a few more storms without incidence to make people comfortable.

SPECIAL NOTE: According to Harvard Professor Doc Seals in a January 15th 2018 article entitled Making sense of what happened to Montecito, the mudslide was a unique event and not one most people would ever experience, even once. Here is an excerpt from the article.

“My point is that debris flows over Montecito are a sure bet in geologic time, but not in the human one. In the whole history of Montecito and Santa Barbara (of which Montecito is an unincorporated part), there are no recorded debris flows that started on mountain slopes and spread all the way to the sea.”

We bring this up to say, what happened was an extremely rare thing. Knowing this and feeling safe with the knowledge are two very different animals. As with most things, time is the healer.

Santa Barbara After The Mudslide – Where will people look to buy a home?

There are a number of areas people will look to call home. Displaced Montecito homeowners with the wherewithal may turn to Hope Ranch with its similar feel of hillsides, oak groves, estates, and ocean views. We’ve already heard of some looking in Santa Ynez, Carpinteria, and Ojai.

Many in the industry see The Mesa more attractive than ever since it is less affected (historically) by fire and far from the Thomas fire-affected areas.

In truth, due to low inventories, many parts of Santa Barbara and Goleta will see increased interest. It will also be fascinating to see how many Montecito types who have been living in downtown Santa Barbara hotels come to like the Urban feel and energy of the City.

We are already seeing an uptick in condo sales, many due to displaced families needing a place until they rebuild.  This is true from both mudslide and Thomas fire victims.

Santa Barbara After the Mudslide – Home and rental prices

Prior to the Montecito tragedy, we were speculating on home/rental prices due to homes lost to the Thomas fire. Sometimes we feel Santa Barbara is its own space, yet we are part of a vital central coast region. Many Ventura residents have started looking up the coast for their next abode. Add the losses in Montecito and we are sure to see a demand increase.

The uptick in demand may be buffered by the fact that America’s perception of the Santa Barbara area has been harmed. Many who had their eyes trained on our fair city may be re-thinking. For thoughs who live here, it may be confusing as we know very little of Santa Barbara was threatened and this is still an awesome place to call home.

We expect housing prices to follow the age-old supply and demand models and rise this year. The same is already being seen with rental rates and we see no downward push in sight. This is good and bad news. For those selling or owning rental property, it is a boom and for those trying to buy or rent in an already high priced market, it will exacerbate the challenges.

Santa Barbara After The Mudslide – Who can help me buy or sell a home?

Joe Parker and Garrett McCaw of the Santa Barbara group are here to help you buy or sell a home in Santa Barbara. They’ve been helping people for nearly two decades and know the homes and region well. Some might call it a “local’s insight.”

There is a reason they are among the most trusted and highest performing Realtors in America. They earn it by doing exceptional work, conscientiously keeping on top of trends and being what clients say, “Really nice people.” Give them a call and get started on an amazing real estate experience the team that so many praise.

The Santa Barbara Group at Berkshire Hathaway RSCP.
Garrett McCaw & Joe Parker